The Great Disorder or Credit Risk

The Great Disorder: Politics, Economics, and Society in the German Inflation, 1914-1924

Author: Gerald D Feldman

This book presents a comprehensive study of the most famous and spectacular instance of inflation in modern industrial society--that in Germany during and following World War I. A broad, probing narrative, this book studies inflation as a strategy of social pacification and economic reconstruction and as a mechanism for escaping domestic and international indebtedness. The Great Disorder is a study of German society under the tension of inflation and hyperinflation, and it explores the ways in which Germany's hyperinflation and stabilization were linked to the Great Depression and the rise of National Socialism. This wide-ranging study sets German inflation within the broader issues of maintaining economic stability, social peace, and democracy and thus contributes to the general history of the twentieth century and has important implications for existing and emerging market economies facing the temptation or reality of inflation.

Table of Contents:

	Illustrations
	Tables
	Abbreviations
	Introduction	3
	The German Inflation in Collective Memory and Economic History	3
	The Germany of Dr. Cornelius	11
Pt. I	The First World War and the Origins of the German Inflation
1	Financing the War	25
2	War Economy and Inflation	52
Pt. II	Managing the Crises: From the November Revolution to the Kapp Putsch
3	The Economics of Revolution and Revolutionary Economics	99
4	The Chaotic Path to Relative Stabilization, July 1919-March 1920	156
Pt. III	Relative Stabilization and Inflationary Reconstruction, April 1920-May 1921
5	The Trials and Tribulations of Relative Stabilization	211
6	What Kind of Reconstruction? The German Business Community Faces the Future	255
Pt. IV	Reparations and the Domestic Management of the German Inflation
7	The Presentation of the Bill	309
8	The Domestic Politics of Fulfillment, May 1921-January 1922	344
9	The Transition to Galloping Inflation	385
10	The Vicious Circles: From Galloping Inflation to Hyperinflation, January-July 1922	418
11	Stabilization Debates and Political Crises, August 1922-January 1923	453
Pt. V	Society, State, and Economy in the Hyperinflation of 1922
12	The Year of Dr. Mabuse: The Hyperinflation and German Society in 1922	513
13	Facing Disaster: The State and the "Productive Estates" on the Eve of the Ruhr Occupation	576
Pt. VI	The Ruhr Crisis, End of the Mark, Currency Reform, and Stabilization
14	A Disordered Fortress: Passive Resistance, the Cuno Government, and the Destruction of the German Mark	631
15	The Politics of Currency Reform, August-October 1923	698
16	The Politics of Stabilization, October-November 1923	754
17	Saving the Stabilization, December 1923-April 1924	803
	Epilogue: A Mortgaged Democracy	837
	Notes	859
	Bibliography	945
	Index	969

Interesting textbook: Introduction to Social Work and Social Welfare or Statistical Thinking for Managers

Credit Risk: Pricing, Measurement, and Management

Author: Darrell Duffi

In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies.

Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for futurechanges in the financial markets.

Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.